External link: http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2016/Scenario/presentations/MichaelMeyer.pdf
Publication date: August 15, 2016
Capsule summary: An overview of major climate change phenomena and how it relates to transportation scenario planning.
Author(s): Meyer, Michael; WSP/Parsons Brinckerhoff
Publisher(s): TRB
Definition: Examining the use of scenario planning methods and their outcomes
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Description: This presentation provides an overview of major trends and patterns in climate change, and how they can be accounted for in transportation scenario planning. It delves into past climate patterns, future projections of climate trends, and how these phenomena relate to transportation scenario planning.
Objectives: This presentation draws primarily from the NCHRP’s guide on Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and the Highway System, and the 2014 National Climate Assessment to highlight the changing state of the climate, how these changes have affected transportation and infrastructure systems, and how projected trends could affect such systems in the future.
Findings: Climate change has already led to increased average temperatures, sea level rises, changes in precipitation, and magnitude of floods, amongst numerous other phenomena. Droughts, tropical storms, heat waves, wildfires, and flooding are projected to increase in coming decades across wide geographic areas. Extreme weather conditions that were amplified by climate change have already caused substantial damage to transportation systems, including Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Irene, Superstorm Sandy, and the Tennessee Superflood in 2010.
Recommendations: The effects of climate change must be incorporated into future transportation scenario planning efforts on multiple levels: as part of the vision of a resilient and sustainable transportation system, as reflected in system performance measures, and as part of the definition of regionally-specific parts of the transportation network. Understanding the effects of climate change can also help define parts of a particular study area where special considerations may be necessary during the development of a project. As such, consequences of climate change should be part of integral project processes, such as data collection and analysis, evaluation and project prioritization, and system performance monitoring.
Research Theme: Environment, Scenario Planning
Community Type: City, Medium City, Small City
Transportation Mode:
Planning Scope:
Organization Type: City, County, DOT
Planning Subject: Forecasting, Long-Range Planning, Planning Methods, Strategic Planning