What’s Driving All This Change? Socio-Demographics


External link: http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2016/Scenario/presentations/MarkBradley.pdf

Publication date: August 15, 2016

Capsule summary: Overview of major demographic shifts in the US

Author(s): Bradley, Mark

Publisher(s): RSG

Definition: Examining the use of scenario planning methods and their outcomes
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Description: This presentation provides an overview of major demographic shifts that are currently taking place in the United States, and how they can be accounted for in transportation scenario planning.

Objectives: Use appealing graphics to summarize the scale of demographic changes projected for the next 30 to 50 years, and highlight impacts relevant to planners.

Findings: There are multiple noteworthy demographic changes underway across the United States. These include: an increase in immigrant populations and decrease in the overall non-Hispanic White share of the population; a significant increase in the population above the age of 65; major growth in urban areas with a simultaneous blurring of urban and suburban areas; a greater interest in carshare and bikeshare systems amongst millennials; rapidly increasing income inequality and geographic segregation by income; and gentrification in urban areas.

Recommendations: Understanding these demographic trends, particularly as they relate to transportation issues, is an integral aspect of transportation scenario planning.

Research Theme: Public Health, Scenario Planning

Community Type: City, Large City, Medium City, Rural, Small City, Suburb

Transportation Mode:

Planning Scope:

Organization Type: City, County, DOT

Planning Subject: Forecasting, Long-Range Planning, Planning Methods, Strategic Planning