External link: http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/conferences/2016/Scenario/presentations/BarbIvanov.pdf

Publication date: August 15, 2016

Capsule summary: Overview of scenario planning in freight systems and how it was used in a freight scenario planning workshop in Washington State.

Author(s): Ivanov, Barbara

Publisher(s): University of Washington

Definition: Examining the use of scenario planning methods and their outcomes
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Definition: Studying the movement of goods or commodities
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Definitions: The movement of goods or commodities
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Description: This presentation provides an overview of how scenario planning is used to support investments in freight systems, and focuses on how it was used in a freight scenario planning workshop in Washington state.

Objectives: The presenters sought to examine problems with traditional trade forecasting methods, and use scenario planning not to predict the future, but to prepare for numerous potential futures. The Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) hosted a Future of Freight workshop, in which over sixty attendees were immersed in four long-range, 30-year scenarios–a highly-regulated green world, a North American trading bloc, a world of plenty, and global free trade. As part of these proceedings, strategic highway, rail, waterway, and pipeline corridors in 2037 were predicted and mapped. Additionally, WSDOT interviewed over industry experts across the state to understand near-term (six-year) industry and demand trends.

Findings: WSDOT found that a problem with many traditional trade forecasting methods is that they take historical economic trends and project them forward in accordance with a set growth rate, that do not account for future transportation projects that are currently in progress or under construction. In the workshop, participants determined that there are only five supply-chain outcomes that any particular event can impact–sourcing patterns, freight flow destination, routing (choice of trade lanes), freight flow volume, and value density–and that investment “bundles” focused on land-use solutions, policy and regulatory initiatives, infrastructure, and operational improvements could help meet the projected demand of future freight systems.

Recommendations: The workshop organizers found that the value of scenario planning is almost entirely reliant on the level of attendees’ expertise, and that the size of the workshops can affect the quality the outcome–although large scenario-planning workshops may bring in multiple points of view, holding smaller events with higher-level industry supply chain experts may provide better information overall. Additionally, for scenario planning to be a meaningful exercise for State Departments of Transportation and Metropolitan Planning Organizations, they need to develop business processes that make use of this new knowledge along critical decision paths. Finally, macro-economic and technological forces are impossible to accurately predict, and substantially affect supply chains.

Research Theme: Freight and Logistics, Scenario Planning

Community Type: City, Large City, Medium City, Small City

Transportation Mode: Freight

Planning Scope:

Organization Type: City, County, DOT

Planning Subject: Facility or Land Use, Forecasting, Long-Range Planning, Planning Methods, Strategic Planning, Transportation Planning, Transportation System Management